Afghanistan's Transit Vulnerability to Border Disputes: A Case Study of Pakistan (2021–2025)

Abstract

Owing to its landlocked status, Afghanistan's foreign trade is highly dependent on the transit routes of neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan. This research aims to examine the consequences of Afghanistan's transit dependency on Pakistan and to assess the impact of the abrupt border closure on the country's trade and transit activities. The study employs a mixed-methods approach (quantitative and qualitative), Quantitative data were collected using 43 structured questionnaires, and qualitative information was gathered through semi-structured interviews with traders, transportation companies, and foreign freight-forwarding firms. The findings indicate that the border closure resulted in a substantial decline in trade volume, with 20.9% of respondents reporting a complete cessation of their trade activities. Furthermore, increased transportation costs, prolonged delays in the movement of goods, spoilage of perishable products, and the loss of trade contracts emerged as among the most significant consequences of this situation. Although alternative routes through Iran and Central Asia have been utilized, they have failed to serve as effective substitutes for the Pakistan route due to high costs, extended transit times, and operational constraints. The results of this research underscore the necessity of diversifying transit routes, strengthening regional cooperation, improving transportation infrastructure, and developing digital customs systems in order reduce Afghanistan's vulnerability to transit disruptions.